Dec 20th 2011, 22:00 by H.T., K.N.C., D.T. | TOKYO and SEOUL
12月20日，2011.
IT IS hard to overestimate how much is at stake for the world after the sudden death of Kim Jong Il, the North Korean despot, on December 17th. Officially, at least, it has thrust into the inexperienced hands of his pudgy young son, Kim Jong Un, control of a nuclear-armed nation that has one of the largest standing armies in the world as well as the capacity to wreak havoc on two of America’s strongest Asian allies, South Korea and Japan. The new Kim’s domain abuts China and Russia, both powers that analysts believe would be opposed to any move America might make to try steering the new regime into its orbit.
很难高估金正日这个朝鲜的专政者在12月17日的突然死亡对世界局势造成的威胁。至少在官方来说，这个具有核武装并且拥有一支世界上最大的常备军且能威胁到美国的两个同盟国：韩国和日本的国家已经落入了他未谙世事的矮胖（这是身材歧视啊，按照原文翻译不关译者的事啊）儿子金正恩手中了。这个新的金氏国家与中国和朝鲜接壤，而这两个政权国家都是分析家认为会反对美国采取的任何把这个新的政权纳入它的轨道的行为。
Almost nothing is known about the man North Korea’s propaganda apparatus has dubbed the “Great Successor”. Apart from evidence he was schooled for a while in Switzerland, it is not even clear whether he is 27 or 28. Since he was unveiled as the heir-apparent in September 2010, he has not spoken in public, and was always accompanied on trips he took with his father by several other veterans of the ruling clique, including his uncle and aunt. These precautions suggest his grooming as dictator-to-be was a race against the clock.
对于这个朝鲜的宣传机关称之为“伟大的接班人”的人，外界知之甚少。除了有证据表明他曾经在瑞士学习过一小段时间之外，外界甚至不确定他到底是27岁还是28岁。自从2010年9月他作为一个接班人公开露面后，他没有公开发言过，并且总有军队随行，以及统治集团的老臣子包括他的姑姑和姑夫。这些预警措施都表明他正被争分夺秒的打扮成接班人的样子。
The pressure on him now is likely to be huge. Whereas his father had 20 years of apprenticeship to the regime’s founder, Kim Il Sung, this third-generation Kim has had just two years since rumours of his privileged status first surfaced, shortly after his father had a stroke. After the death of his grandfather, North Korea’s “eternal president”, Kim Jong Un’s father had three years of official mourning to stay out of the public eye. Now the youngster will have only 12 days’ seclusion for official grieving, to end the day after his father’s funeral on December 28th. Less than four months later, the country he inherits is supposed to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the eternal president’s birth, by which time it is meant to turn from a land of bellicose misery into a “strong and prosperous” nation. It is a fair bet that an insecure young Mr Kim, surrounded by crusty generals some of whom are triple his age, feels he has a lot to prove.
目前似乎他身上的压力非常巨大。鉴于他父亲在接手这个国家之前有20年跟从国家的建立者金日成的见习期，第三代金氏领导人从他父亲中风之后不久后谣言传说他的特权身份到现在只有两年时间。他祖父--“朝鲜永远的领导者”逝世之后，金正恩的父亲有三年的哀悼期来躲在公众的实现之外，而现在这位年轻人只有12天与世隔绝来哀悼，而这天将会在12月28日他父亲的葬礼日结束。
Yet in the face of such insecurity and unpredictability, analysts say there is little that foreign powers, whether allies such as China, or “mortal enemies”, such as America, can do except wait and see how things turn out. Marcus Noland, a North Korea specialist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, DC, describes North Korea as a country that has remained “remarkably insensitive to punishments and rewards” from abroad; in other words, it shrugs off both sanctions and support, and its behaviour is mostly guided by domestic political considerations. Foreigners have little leverage.
然而面对如此多的不稳定和不可预知因素，分析家们认为国外的势力不管是盟国如中国还是死敌如美国都很难有所作为。他们只能静观其变看事情如何发展。来自华盛顿一家研究国际经济的Peterson 机构的朝鲜方面的专员Marcus Noland形容朝鲜对来自国外的赞扬和批评都异常迟钝。也就是说，不管是反对他还是支持他，他都不介意。而他更多的是根据国内的政治考虑来决策。国外势力无足轻重。
Perhaps it is for that reason that many outsiders have chosen to take a sanguine view that the succession will be smooth—at least in the early months—rather than something like a prelude to regime collapse, a refugee crisis, “loose nukes” or even war. The Obama administration on December 20th called for a “peaceful, stable transition”, a position shared by Japan and echoed in Seoul by Lee Myung-bak, the South Korean president (who nevertheless has kept troops on high alert). Several Washington-based think-tanks believe the regime had prepared for the succession, and that a “gang of four”—the young Mr Kim, his powerful aunt, Kim Kyong Hui, her husband, Jang Song Taek, and the most senior general, Ri Yong Ho—will work together to keep order. Kept in check by his seniors, some believe Mr Kim may initially represent little change from his father, either for good—for example, by allowing greater economic modernisation—or for bad, say by ratcheting up repression or aggression. Others are more pessimistic, however. Mr Noland thinks Mr Kim may be tempted to engage in provocative acts, another nuclear test or a military engagement for example, to burnish his credentials (some believe he was partly responsible for attacks in South Korea in the last two years). Or he may be simply unable to control factions within the regime, allowing the army to create mischief of its own.
可能因为这个原因，很多人选择对继任持乐观看法认为政权会平稳过渡，而不会有如政权解体，难民潮，‘核武器失控“甚至战争等事件发生，至少在最初几个月里会如此。奥巴马政府在12月20日时呼吁一个”和平的，稳定的交接“，日本持相同的姿态，韩国总统李明博也积极回应，尽管他还是让军队保持了高度警惕。几个位于华盛顿的智库认为朝鲜之前就有为政权交接而准备过。这将是个”四人帮“----年轻的继任者金正恩，他实权在握的姑姑金敬姬，她的丈夫张成泽和最高将军李英浩。他们会合作来保持秩序。有些人认为被长辈们看住的金正恩可能开始时很难在他父亲的基础上作出改动，不管是好的比如允许更大的经济现代化，还是坏的比如加强镇压或者侵略。另外一些人则持悲观看法。Noland先生认为金正恩可能会有激烈动作，比如另一场核试验或者军事事件来建立他的威望（有人认为他可能要对之前两年攻击韩国的事件负部分责任）。或者他可能根本就无法控制内讧，让军队自相残杀。
Foreign powers have not even been given a chance to gauge the mood by attending the funeral: it is to be an internal-only affair. That has put more emphasis on the messages sent by North Korea’s interlocutors abroad, which range from condolences, in the case of China and Russia (cravenly, China’s authorities said its people would “forever cherish” Kim Jong Il’s memory) to a sort of sympathetic contortionism by America and South Korea, which have both professed support for the North Korean people in their grief without explicitly offering condolences to the regime. In 1994, when Kim Il Sung died, the refusal of South Korea’s then-government to offer condolences cast a pall over the relationship for years. In contrast, the Clinton administration dispatched an envoy to meet with North Korean officials to express condolences.
外国势力甚至没有获得去参加金正日的葬礼来推测气氛的机会。葬礼只作为内部事件处理。而这些从朝鲜的国外机构所发出的信息中得到了强调，从来自中国和俄罗斯的哀悼（懦弱的中国当政者甚至说中国人民会”永远珍惜“金正日的回忆）延伸到美国和韩国的同情柔术政策：他们既公开支持朝鲜人民又不明确表示哀悼。1994年当金日成逝世的湿乎乎，当时的韩国政府的拒绝吊唁使两国关系在几年中蒙上了阴影。相反的，当时的克林顿政府派出了特使会见朝鲜官方表达了哀悼之情。
Coincidentally, almost at the time Mr Kim was suffering a fatal heart attack on a train last Saturday, an American envoy was meeting with the North Koreans to discuss the resumption of food aid to the impoverished country, whose people are stunted by hunger. There are unconfirmed reports that this was in exchange for a halt to North Korea’s uranium-enrichment programme. Whether true or not, the Obama administration and its allies appear to have been moving gingerly back to a resumption of six-party denuclearisation talks with North Korea, involving South Korea, Japan, China and Russia. The food-aid initiative was promptly suspended on news of Mr Kim’s death, replaced by a wait-and-see attitude.
恰巧地，几乎在上周六金正日在火车上遭遇致命的心脏病的同时，一名美国使节正在与朝鲜探讨重新提供食物支援给韩国这个贫困之极，国民遭受解饿之苦的国家。没有明显的迹象表明这是作为朝鲜停止铀浓缩项目的交换条件。不管真实与否，奥巴马政府和他的盟国们貌似正亦步亦趋地谋求同朝鲜重开六方会谈，其中涉及韩国，日本，中国和俄国。食物援助计划因金正日的死暂时搁置，随之取代的是静观其变的态度。
No one is as yet pressing the new leader for a quick resumption of denuclearisation talks. Beyond that, one discussion on North Korea that its five counterparts in the six-party talks have never been able to have—even secretly, according to analysts—is how to react to a potential breakdown if the regime implodes. For China, such a discussion may smack of disloyalty and risk exacerbating what it fears most—chaos in the North. Neither have South Korea and America, who are broadly allied on dealing with North Korea, always seen eye to eye on how to handle regime change. Worryingly, one reason all of them now are urging a smooth and stable transition may be that there is no alternative plan if it all goes wrong.
目前为止尚未有人对新的领导者提出尽快重开六方会谈的压力。六方会谈中的其余五个至今没有机会哪怕是秘密地来讨论关于如何应对如果朝鲜内乱这个潜在的暴乱的问题。对只能各国来说，这样的讨论有点不忠的味道，而且有可能激化他最大的恐惧——北方骚乱。不管是韩国还是与之在朝鲜问题上有广泛合作的美国，在如何处理政权交替问题上都无法意见一致。让人担忧的是，所有人都想要看到一个平稳的交接的原因可能是如果不如此他们没有第二计划来应对。
(Picture credit: AFP)
